МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ВПЛИВУ ЧИННИКІВ НА ЕКСПОРТ ТОРГОВЕЛЬНИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ
The article describes the significant participation of trade enterprises in the socio-economic development of the country. The input data for building an econometric model are analyzed. We estimated construction cases of econometric models, where the resulting factor is export to EU countries and considered 4-factor, 3-factor and 2-factor models. We revealed the positive influence of factors on the export of trade enterprises to the EU countries.
In early history, people were limited to domestic trade due to a lack of access to international markets. As transportation improved, many countries changed from a purely domestic to an international market, introducing new products to the region. Examples of this are the Silk Road and early travels to find spices, salt, and gold. Most large countries rely on a combination of domestic and international trade for economic growth and maximum product choice.
Trade has a significant impact on strengthening socio-economic development in countries and overcoming global poverty. Countries open to international trade tend to develop more dynamically, innovate, increase productivity and provide higher incomes and more opportunities for their populations. Open trade also benefits lower-income households by offering consumers more affordable goods and services. Integration with the world economy through trade and global value chains contributes to economic growth and poverty reduction, both locally and globally.
To build a model, we use the capabilities of Exel, namely the LINEST function, the result of which is information about the coefficients of the model; a coefficient of determination that makes it possible to assess the closeness of the relationship between the factor characteristics and the resulting factor; calculated value, which allows the use of Fisher's criterion under the condition that confirms the adequacy of the econometric model to the data of the general population at a given probability and degrees of freedom. In addition to this information, the LINEST function provides calculated standard error estimates for each of the coefficients, so we can use t-statistics to estimate the obtained coefficients of the econometric model. For the degree of freedom at a given value of the corresponding probability, determine the tabular value. The calculated values are defined as the ratio of the values of the model's coefficients to the estimates of the standard error of the coefficients taken modulo. If they are higher than the tabular value of t-statistics, then the model's coefficients are significant, i.e. such a model can be used in practice, and the results obtained will have an error of 5 per cent.
Analyzing the coefficients for factors in the model allows us to conclude the positive impact of both factors on exports to EU countries. An increase of UAH 1 million in the wholesale turnover of goods produced on the territory of Ukraine will increase exports to the EU by $0.0068 million, and an increase of $1 million in imports from EU countries will increase exports by $0.4059 million to EU countries.